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A Calm Analysis of Gaza Aid Initiative and the Raid of Israel |
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The campaign ‘Palestine our route humanitarian aid our load’ organized by Foundation for Human Rights and Freedom and Humanitarian Relief (IHH) was exposed to an Israeli attack. The severe interference and the loss of more than 10 lives and Turkey’s encounter with a serious crisis require a calm analysis of the incident.
Firstly, one should note that this is the deepest crisis between Turkey and Israel since the foundation of diplomatic relations. Israel had particularly targeted a Turkish registered ship. Israel has a professional army which is capable of international operations and hostage rescue practices. Thus, Israel could have intervened without any loss of lives. However, Israel intervened severely and desired the loss of lives. The cruel and inhuman act of Israel is beyond any explanation and the precedent is unavailable even in battle fields.
Israel believes that the initiative organized by IHH is not an ordinary aid activity. It is evaluated as a violation of Israeli embargo against Gaza. Also Israel believes that if this act succeeds it will proceed and aid ships and volunteers from all around the world will flood to the region. Thus, it was unacceptable for Israel and it had to interfere. Though Israel explicitly declared intervention IHH authorities declared that they will not return and will go to any length. The situation was definitively escalating to a conflict. Therefore, the following matters should be assessed evenly.
- Turkey has failed to manage the risky developments and was caught unprepared. The government reports were unstable and Prime Minister R. Tayyip Erdogan’s arrival was counted on.
- In its statement government claimed that IHH was a NGO in which government could not interfere in. This is obviously true. However, there are many precedent situations in Turkish government interfered in the NGO’s. Besides, if the initiative of this NGO has a potential of causing risks and creating troubles then the NGO can obviosly be interfered .
- IHH should have calculated the outcomes of the initiative and should have behaved more responsibly as this initiative has confronted Turkey and Israel
- It is neither comprehensible that Turkey allowed for this expected but unpredictable conflict. This reveals that Turkish diplomacy has also got under the influence of political inclination.
- Turkey is not conscious of restrained tension. Turkey cannot reduce tension when it is needed. Ankara should learn this policy in which Iran is skilled in. Yet, freezing the relations with Israel makes sense if Turkey wants to increase its activities in the Middle East. However, the scope of this policy should be carefully determined and should not be exaggerated.
- Unfortunately, the situation is inextricable for Turkey. The simple truth lies ahead. Israeli troops invaded a Turkish ship and killed Turkish citizens. How and to what extent the account will be paid? Is it satisfactory if Israel apologizes as Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu requested? How will Israel be called to account for? If Israel will not pay the price then why this situation was escalated in the expense of the lives of Turkish citizens?
- If Israel does not return the boat, then what measures will be taken? What will be done if Israel does not return and/or arrest the death, injured or alive? Are the potential scripts for these are already written? Are the measures to be taken in the possible situations are figured up? Vice President of AKP Huseyin Celik has pointed out :“the Israeli raid and casualty of 6 in İskenderun do not constitute a coincidence. Our belief is also in the same way. However, should the top national authorities have expressed this? If the government implies this, does it not bind the government? If the connection of these attacks with Israel is recognized, will it be responded? Or will it be swallowed?
Aftermath, what will be the probable developments and possible scenarios;
- The influence of Israel on the terrorist organization is well- known. Israel has influence not only on the PKK but also on the other left organizations. İskenderun attacks were probably carried out by a vendor organization. Thereafter, a new era in parallel with the course of the relations with Israel in which terrorism will increase is ahead. New terrorist attacks should be provided against.
- The terrorist attacks in Turkey shall target not only the Turkish citizens but also to Jewish origins and these may be organized by Israel itself. This should also be provided against. Besides, our citizens should not behave impulsively and should not lead Turkey into a situation where Turkey becomes wrong while it was already right.
- Israel’s media power is not a secret. After this, Israel will make claims of the terrorist connections of IHH. Even, government officers will be dragged into these allegations. Besides, this Turkey will be with the allegations of provocation.
- Israel is also an influential power in financial markets. In accordance with the strained relations between Turkey and Israel, attacks against Turkey on the financial markets are also possible. Especially, Turkey should be extremely careful in the exchange markets and should not panic in the case of an offence.
- Turkey and Israel have deep-seated military relations. The possibility of locking or disposing of a part of weapon stocks of Turkish Armed Forces should not be disregarded. However, it should also be perceived as a chance to be free from the Israeli dependence in defense industry. Turkey should be able to substitute Israel in the military grounds.
What will be the Regional and Global Dimensions of this Incident?
- One should not expect a global cooperation or an action against Israel. EU is anyway not influential in this matter. Russia will be unwilling to involve, whereas China in no circumstances will involve.
- US is known to be dissatisfied with the current government. US shall not want the weakening or damaging of Israeli state. However, the US will be pleased with a government change.
- This matter may result with a government change. Neither the Middle East Peace Process or any relation between Turkey and Israel may be re-established with the current government. Besides, US will need a new government on its side for a new phase in the Middle East.
- These developments have weakened any possibility of an Israeli intervention against Iran even it made it impossible in the short term. In addition, enforcement of the sanctions against Iran has also become difficult. As a result of this assault a burden fell on Turkey whereas Iran has taken the advantage.
- Unfortunately, Islamic world failed to express a strong reaction. Turkey was left alone in this matter not sharing the burden with Islamic world which damages Turkey’s interests in return. The countries from Saudi Arabia to Egypt should be involved in this matter. However, one should not forget, if Egypt had not put the sanctions against Gaza, the situation would have been different than today. Ankara has a clear mission, a historical responsibility and interests in the region. Yet, this does not mean that Turkey will undertake all the burden and costs by itself.
- Turkey’s decisions are not sufficient. First of all, military cooperation agreement with Isral should be abolished. The initiatives of isolating Israel should sustain. However, it should be acknowledged that the isolated Israel will get more aggressive.
- One aspect of these problems is the power struggle between Hamas and El Fetih in Israel. Israel and the Arab world in general do not want to establish relations with Hamas. Yet Hamas acceded with elections. However, in the current situation a settlement cannot be made where Hamas has the authority. In this case, at least a coalition with El Fetih may free people of Gaza from the embargo. In this context, government should make self-sacrifice for its people. Yet, the people of Gaza and the Turkish citizens should not suffer the consequences of Hamas rule. The reason of the Arab world not supporting the Gaza lies in the Hamas being on power.
Review
Turkey is a substantial, powerful country with a historical background. In recent years, Turkey is pursuing risky foreign policy initiatives. The nuclear exchange deal signed with Iran put Turkey in a troublesome situation for no reason. Today, allowing these boats, Turkey deliberately fall into this crisis. Having the establishments like Kizilay the leading of IHH does not make any sense. A rogue government is in power in Israel. However, one should acknowledge this and act accordingly. Turkey should not be dragged into a risk this easily. Turkey should further channelize its diplomacy. Turkey should not be left all alone while the important and rich countries of the Islamic World are taking a back seat. One cannot argue that Turkey will take the advantage of taking too much risk and becoming vulnerable to provocations. These developments will probably have the repercussions in both Turkish and Israeli internal politics. Israel had almost committed a suicide in the international arena. It is isolated and excluded. However, Israel had already run the risk of it and one should not expect serious sanctions against Israel.
Last Remark: The role of Britain, which seems to pursue non involvement policies in the Middle East but appears behind the scene in many affairs and who is at the same time the main source of the current situation in the Middle East, should carefully be analyzed. Besides, there exist many countries having an advantage of a confrontation between Turkey and Israel and thus acting as a catalyst of such a situation. The position and the role of such countries should be inquired. In this context, though the terrorist activity in Iskenderun points out to Israel, and though Israel has the insanity and capability for such an action, many other neighboring or other countries who have interests in confronting Turkey and Israel may easily have got involved in that matter. Therefore, all the possibilities should always be considered and all the alternative situations should definitely be evaluated mindfully.
http://www.turksam.org/en/a262.html |
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