The prolonged matter of Iran nuclear fuel swap is solved “for the moment”. After the lasting negotiations and bartering, Iran agreed to send a letter describing the deal to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) within a week. Iran was convinced after the broad-based “wise” sanctions to be issued against the country in the last month’s Nuclear Security Summit due to the intensified efforts of UN Security Council

 

As yet, Iran was reluctant to the nuclear exchange anywhere but within its own territory. In this context Iran was worried for a game to be played if exchange of  the 1200 kg enriched uranium with other countries realized with not taking nuclear fuel in return. The statement of Iran minister of foreign affairs; “In case the provisions of this Declaration are not respected, Turkey, upon the request of Iran, will return swiftly and unconditionally Iran's LEU to Iran” can be evaluated within this context. As a matter of fact, Iran has not supplied all the LEU it has. Iran also wants to consider the process. Thus, it will observe the working of the process supplying part of its LEU. Within the process, the trust of Iran has been somehow established. However, the statement of the Russian President Dimitri Medvedev declaring that it might be the last chance of Iran was also effective in the convincement of Iran. Yet, in the Nuclear Security summit convened in the USA, the two main advocates of Iran, Russia and China were at least partially convinced and not only a new chain of broad based sanctions against Iran were to be put in effect but also an Israeli incursion against Iran was to be held around Autumn.

 

Iran is successful in performing restrained stress. Iran manages conjuncture and process extremely with success and takes the essential steps in easing the tension as it perceives the damage for itself. Iran’s last move should be analyzed within this context. However, with this signature, one should not think that the nuclear crisis has reached an end. Yet Iran is playing with the time. Tehran might have chosen this way in order to avert not only the threat of sanction but also the threat of an attack. Iran may declare its retreat from this agreement with an allegation if the conjuncture turns in favor of it or the west itself may abolish the treaty.

 

One can argue that along with Brazil, Turkey has succeeded in the conciliation of a major issue. However, the risks of the issue should also be carefully assessed. Yet, western countries may take the Iranian LEU not trading the nuclear fuel in return by making up an excuse like the nuclear weapon acquisition quest of Iran and even they may urge Turkey not to return the uranium. Such provocation shall destroy Turkish-Iranian relations. Even Ankara and Tehran may deliberately be confronted.

 

These developments shall tighten the already bitter relations between Turkey and Israel. The first reaction of Israel for this treaty is already in this direction. Israel’s assertion is Iran has manipulated Turkey and Brazil. Israel by no means trusts Iranian government. Israeli bias against Iran proceeds. Tel Aviv government believes that the treaty signed by the initiatives of Turkey and Israel saves time for Iran. With this stance, Turkey has entered a risky phase. This phase is open to any provocation from anywhere.

 

The articles of the agreement providing uranium Exchange between Iran and the Vienna Group (USA, Russia, France, and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ) are as follows:

 

1.  We reaffirm our commitment to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and in accordance with the related articles of the NPT. We recall the right of all State Parties, including the Islamic Republic of Iran, to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination.

 

2- We express our strong conviction to begin a process in a positive, constructive, non-confrontational atmosphere leading to interaction and cooperation

 3. We believe that the nuclear fuel exchange is instrumental in initiating cooperation in different areas, especially with regard to peaceful nuclear cooperation including nuclear power plant and research reactors construction. 

4. Based on this point the nuclear fuel exchange is a starting point to begin cooperation and a positive constructive move forward among nations. Such a move should lead to positive interaction and cooperation in the field of peaceful nuclear activities replacing and avoiding all kinds of confrontation through refraining from measures, actions and rhetorical statements that would jeopardize Iran’s rights and obligations under the NPT.
5. Based on the above, in order to facilitate the nuclear cooperation mentioned above, the Islamic Republic of Iran agrees to deposit 1200 kg LEU in Turkey. While in Turkey this LEU will continue to be the property of Iran. Iran and the IAEA may station observers to monitor the safekeeping of the LEU in Turkey.

6. Iran will notify the IAEA in writing through official channels of its agreement with the above within seven days following the date of this declaration. Upon the positive response of the Vienna Group (US, Russia, France and the IAEA) further details of the exchange will be elaborated through a written agreement and proper arrangement between Iran and the Vienna Group that specifically committed themselves to deliver 120 kg of fuel needed for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR).

7. When the Vienna Group declares its commitment to this provision, then both parties would commit themselves to the implementation of the agreement mentioned in item 6. Islamic Republic of Iran expressed its readiness -in accordance with the agreement- to deposit its LEU (1200 kg) within one month and on the basis of the same agreement the Vienna Group should deliver 120 kg fuel required for TRR in no later than one year.
8. In case the provisions of this Declaration are not respected Turkey, upon the request of Iran, will return swiftly and unconditionally Iran’s LEU to Iran.
9. Turkey and Brazil welcomed the continuous readiness of the Islamic Republic of Iran to pursue its talks with the 5+1 countries in any place including Turkey and Brazil, on the common concerns based on collective commitments according to the common points of their proposals.
10. Turkey and Brazil appreciated Iran’s commitment to the NPT and its constructive role in pursuing the realization of nuclear rights of its member states. The Islamic Republic of Iran likewise appreciated the constructive efforts of the friendly countries Turkey and Brazil in creating the conducive environment for realization of Iran’s nuclear rights.

 

After the Iran visit, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan passed on to Baku. Though it looks insignificant among the intensive agenda, there are important topics in Erdogan’s Baku visit. The most important issue is Karabakh settlement. After the deadlock of the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia and the survival of Turkey-Azerbaijani relations from this crisis, this visit is important. The relation between Ankara and Baku is going through a process of reparation.

 

On contrary to our expectations any significant development was not experienced during Russian President Dimitei Medvedev’s visit. However, next month Erdogan plans to meet Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in the Russian province Soçi. The Armenian President Serj Sarkisyan is also expected to attend this meeting in which among the main issues will be the Karabakh settlement and Turkish-Armenian normalization process.

 

Azerbaijani President İlham Aliyev’s Turkey visit could not realized for a long time. Aliyev’s Tukey visit shall also be discussed in this meeting. Azerbaijani President İlham Aliyev will be in İstanbul to attend the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in which Turkey will be taking over presidency in June. However, it is also worth  mentioning that this will not be an official visit.

 

It is possible Erdogan will keep up his efforts in abolishing visa requirements with several countries also in Baku. Baku is also expected to take the required steps for the matter.

 

Another subject on the agenda is the paraphrasing of natural gas deals. The cooperation in natural gas which was interrupted due to Turkey’s Armenian initiative is eventually coming right. Besides, a natural gas summit in Batum, Georgia is expected to convene with the attendance of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Greece and Italy. To this end, Prime Minister Erdogan will pass on to Batum after Baku.

 

During Erdogan’s Baku visit, a monument to Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, will be opened in Baku.