Director of Turkish Centre for International Relations and Strategic Analysis Sinan Ogan’s answers to ValdaiClub.com questions.

 

Valdai Club: What do people expect from the Russian president’s visit in May?

 

Sinan OĞAN: The most important expectation from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit is the signing of strategic cooperation documents that will be a new and important step in relations. It is likely that such a document will be signed during this visit. It is possible to increase the scope of this agreement to include, for example: the signing of an agreement on building a nuclear power plant in Turkey, making progress on moving to a visa free regime between Turkey and the Russian Federation, including the PKK terrorist group on Russia’s list of proscribed organizations, the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and Russia’s subsequent assistance in the Turkey-Armenia normalization process and the establishment of a high level strategic cooperation council between Turkey and Russia. Naturally, Russian petrol and natural gas enterprises’ investment in Turkey is also one of the most important subjects that will come up. Equally, regional questions especially about Iraq and Iran will also feature on the agenda.

 

 

Sinan OĞAN: Relations between Russia and Turkey have their peculiarities. The Russian and Turkish economies complement each other rather than vying for position like the economies of Turkey and China. While the Turkish and Chinese economies are rivals in a wide range of fields, the Turkish and Russian economies complement each other. Russia has raw materials, energy and the defense industry, all of which Turkey needs, and Turkey has what Russia needs, such as for example: the construction sector, food, textiles and consumer products. Consequently, the future of relations between the two states evolves in accordance with the way these two countries’ economies and geographies complement each other.

 

Valdai Club: What are the priorities in energy cooperation between Russia and Turkey?

 

Sinan OĞAN: Russia supplies 65% of Turkey’s natural gas demand and about 30%-40% of its demand for petrol. These two countries maintain active cooperation on energy matters. There are no obstacles to the improvement of energy cooperation and the evolution of this relationship with each passing day. The nuclear energy sphere in particular is one of the biggest potential areas for cooperation. In addition to that, there is a lot of room for cooperation on a wide range of fields such as: the realization of the Samsun-Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline construction, the realization of Blue Stream 2, the Nabucco and South Stream projects, the construction of new oil refineries, the construction of natural gas storage plants, the joint search for oil and natural gas in the Black Sea region, the participation of Russian companies in natural gas distribution tenders, and in the power plants and distribution tenders in Turkey.

 

 

Sinan OĞAN: Until now, the West, especially the USA, thought of the Turkish-Russian relationship as follows: cooperation in non-strategic sectors such as tourism and commerce are fine, but cooperation in strategic sectors like energy, the military and so on was not. However, it seems this phase has now passed. Especially when we take into account Europe’s energy security needs it is clear Europe supports good relations between the two countries on this issue. Russia supports Turkey`s membership of the European Union, too.