Sinan OĞAN: After the protocol signed on October 10, the general beliefs that are the relations between Turkey and Armenia will normalize and improve the further relations. However; we thought the converse of this and unfortunately our foresight and analysis began to be correct. Although only 2 months passed since the signing of the Protocol and the President of Armenia, Serj Sarkisyan's visit to Turkey, the spring weather which spread quickly dissolved with the same speed. The two countries conservations tone has become increasingly harder as the approval of the protocols were delaying.

 

According to our foresight, it would provide any serious improvement about Nagorno- Karabakh until April 2010. Therefore, the protocols would not be approved by Turkish Parliament. Seemingly, in order not to approve the protocols, it would be harden the mutual tons of messages in terms of the relations between Turkey and Armenia

 

ZHAMANAK: From the very first after the signing of the protocols in Zurich Turkey started tagging Armenia as “occupant” and demanded to leave the Azerbaijani territories “occupied” by Armenian forces. In this situation, what do you think how close Armenia and Turkey for ratification of protocols and do you think the protocols will be ratified by the Parliament of Turkey?

 

Sinan OĞAN: Even if the protocols do not include any precondition about Nagorno Karabakh, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has so clear expressions in Azerbaijan Parliament in Bakû. Accordingly; it would be understood not passed the protocol from Turkish Parliament without progress on Nagorno-Karabakh. Until April 2010, Turkey and Armenia would not close each other, on the contrary they would be further away.

ZHAMANAK: On December 7, Prime Minister of Turkey Mr. Erdogan is going to visit Washington D.C. What are the main issues that Mr. Erdogan will discuss with his American counterparts? Do you think that Armenia-Turkey relations and Karabakh conflict resolution will be among those issues?

 

Sinan OĞAN: The main issues that will be handled in Prime Minister's visit to the USA includes Kurdish initiative, Relations with Syria and Iraq, Iran's nuclear programme and Turkey's role in this new process, the USA removing troops from Iraq and the new role for Turkey in this new situation, Turkey-Israel relations, Turkey's support to the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan, seminary, the Cyprus issue, and Turkey-EU relations and Turkey-USA relations. Relations between Turkey and Armenia will be among one of the most crucial issues of this visit; and Prime Minister Erdogan will ask for a more active support from USA President Obama for the Nagorno Karabagh solution, and ask for making a pressure on Armenia on this issue.

 

ZHAMANAK: Armenian authorities in their commentaries usually tell that international community wont’ accept if Turkey does not ratify the Protocols. Do you think that Turkey can be forced or pressed for Protocols ratification?

 

Sinan OĞAN: Certainly yes. If Turkey does not approve the protocol, it will be expected to put pressure some countries. Turkey is a large country in its own region and Turkey is not a country that changed policy with pressures. And Turkey should not be too. However, it will be activated behind closed doors what happened and which pressure tools will connect that are unknown. Consequently, this issue is a situation open to all kinds of surprises.

 

ZHAMANAK: What is your vision of Karabakh conflict resolution? Are Madrid principles fit within your expectations?

 

Sinan OĞAN: The future status of Nagorno-Karabakh is an issue to be resolved by Azerbaijan and Armenia. As a result of the mutual negotiations between the parties, it will be decided upon whether the settlement of this conflict should be based on Madrid Principles or other principles. As Think Tank, a nonpartisan, professional strategic organisation, we are trying to analyze the issue and make predictions about the future. As our previous experiences have taught us, we can say that those peace agreements which do not fully satisfy either of the parties, which are not agreed upon unanimously, which are made under foreign pressure or do not lay a sound foundation for peace will result in more serious conflicts. It should be clarified at the onset that the settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh issue should be based upon fair and sound foundations and fully supported by international forces. However, it should be kept in mind that although the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is regarded as a conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it has become a multilateral and international issue including the interests of regional states. The Nagorno-Karabakh issue still indicates the high likelihood of war and should be undoubtedly settled by considering the territorial unity of the nations. Otherwise, new ethnic conflicts could arise in the region.

 

ZHAMANAK: Do you really think that Armenian territory can be used for Nabucco gas pipeline needs? If yes, what about the huge Russian influence in Armenia?

 

Sinan OĞAN: Sure it can use. However; firstly, a peace of agreement should be signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia in order to solve the problems between these two entities. Until the countries of Azerbaijan and Armenia come to an agreement to solve their problems, Nabucco natural gas line, which passes through Armenia, may only reach up to the borders of Azerbaijan's territories. In addition to this, if we look at the further relations between Turkey and Iran, it could be understood that Nabucco pipeline evolved and it would become the line that is the Turkmen gas via Iran as Iran, Iraq, Syria and Egypt rather than Azerbaijan and Caspian region.

 

ZHAMANAK:   Do you predict any step forward in Nagorno Karabakh conflict resolution by the end of the year? If not, do you think that Armenia-Turkey relations will ever be established without resolving Karabakh conflict

 

Sinan OĞAN: I do not expect any serious improvement about issues neither Nagorno Karabakh nor approving the protocols before the month of April 2010. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan made descriptions that were binding declarations on themselves and Turkey in terms of without advance in Nagorno Karabakh, it will not be approval of the protocol and it will not open borders. In this regard, it would not improve further relations between Armenia and Turkey regardless of this problem without advance in Nagorno Karabakh issue. On the other hand, I see that the higher probability is that relations would deteriorate further until April 2010. However, one should not ignore the possibility of that Armenia could come up some small steps about the Nagorno- Karabakh issue. In case of withdrawal from five regions of Armenia, Turkey would pass through the protocols from parliament and it would open the borders. However; if there is a progress achieved in only this manner and no other progress is achieved, and if Turkey opens the border, then this time relations between Turley and Azerbaijan might be damaged