The analyst of “The Moscow Times” Paul Goble, wrote an aticle named Could Turkey Be The Next Country To Recognise Abkhazia? [1] After that; the journalist of Moscow branch of the Turkish daily newspaper, Milliyet, Cenk Başlamış prepared an article referring to the poul goble. The issue has a large affect on the media of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Grek Republic of Southern Cyprus ,Greece, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Russia with various quotations. In Turkey this issue has a place on the news of Turkish press. Each who quoted from the article of goble observed a diffierent aspect of the issue. Some of the authors even took it so seriously that, they wrote hopeful articles about the issue. So , what is the realistic part of these issues, having been talked before,on the   quotations and analysis ? Does Turkey recognise Abkhazia and does Russia recognise TRNC in return for that?

 

 The answer of the question above is, in beforehand, no. Neither Turkey recognises Abkhazia nor Russia recognises TRNC. The reason is quite clear. The reasons why turkey won’t introduce TRNC and won’t recognise Abkhazia in return for this come in the fallowing:

 

1)Turkey does not have a politic road such as introducing TRNC: Turkey does not wish to have some unwanted problems with EU and USA by introducing TRNC and also wishes to solve the problems on the debate in a union. Even if some country declares of recogniSİNG TRNC, Turkey surely comes against of this. Before this issue almost the same problems were experienced between Pakistan and Bangladesh and Turkey did not want TRNC to be recognised by them.

 

2)The absence of the president of TRNC, Mehmet Ali Talat to be known and recognised: Not only the absence of Mehmet Ali Talat’s wish to be known but also the absence of the president of TRNC who is arranging the debate about “United Cyprus” and the administration of Greek as the presenter of the Turkish Cypriot.

3)Turkey’s faith of the united territory: Turkey accepts the united territory principal without any debate because of the countries in its district and also it applies these principles. It is   even not been thought tha Turkey’s united territorry principle would be broken in any circumstances and in any situation.

 

4)Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabagh issue: Turkey’s recognision of Abkhazia which declared its independency while belonging to Georgia strenghtens the wishes of independence of the district of Nogorno Karabakh which had been belonged to Azerbaijan but invased by Armenia and strenghten Armania’s hands. Turkey’s attempt of recognising of anything that would destroy the position of the territory of Azerbaijan which is Turkey’s allied, is not possible at all because of the principle of the united territory.

 

5)The strategical allience with Georgia: Georgia is one of the most important allied countries of Turkey. Turkey impressed the united territory of Georgia many times in the declarations and expressions within different levels. Recently Georgia and Turkey has many adventegous progress. This recognision may lead Turkey to reconsider the   relationship between Georgia and Turkey. Firstly, the projcet of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, (BTC), then Şahdeniz natural gas pipelines project and Kars- Tbilisi railway projcet ,important communication and arrival items has a way to Georgia. The visas has been removed with Georgia. Last week the work on trying to eliminate passports to pass Georgia and to enable to just passing with identitiy cards will be on date very soon.

 

6)Russia does not recognise TRNC either: The most foreign investment to Russia comes from Grek Republic of Southern Cyprus.(GRSC). In fact the most of these investment belongs to Russian fund and it goes and returns from (GRSC) just to be acquited. The existence of over 50 thousand agents which has some privilage about paying tax just a percent of 4.5 in (GRSC) and the absence of these responsibility in Russia makes GRSC an important place for the Russian agencies. That is why the faith between these countries continues. The reason is the existence of Russian offshore agencies and their percentage of 12 in their incomes. So, it is impossible for Russia to ignore GRSC and recognise TRNC. Also it should not be forgotten that the historical points and their Ortodox origin are some of the common points between those countries and also Greece is an important point.

 

Russian ship and anhancing traffic on Blacksea  and its approach against Georgia’s attempts to arrest of vessel of Abkhazia, Russian war ship has declared that they would even protect the border of Abkhazia. It is known for Russia that, it is trying to introduce Abkhazia against Georgia. And also for this reason Russia tries to sell some cheap guns to Southern American countries and it tries to enable low interested credits. But Russia can not be in the tempt of a foreign politics to be against GRSC and Greece.

 

In the process of being the most important part of the relationship between Georgia and Turkey, Turkey is not supposed to recognise Abkhazia in the procces of the visit of foreign ministry consultant , Ünal Çeviköz. To be known by TRNC and Russia both by Abkhazia is not possible in the term of conjuntrure and the countries’ approach of foreign policies. It is still being remembered the answer of no of the Greek and the answer of the yes of Turks in Annan Project and the reject of the EU security consultation on this issue.

 

The relationship between Russia and Turkey has developed after 2004. Even some issues which seem impossible to solve have been talked and solved by debate easily. But the issue of Cyprus is not in the issues. Russia has become “more warm political progress and more stable political situation ”in the issue of Cyprus. It is possible to see it in the writings of foreign consultancy of Russia.

 

At his statement at a ministerial brifing on 17th September, 2009, Andrey Nesterenko stated that Russia’s position about Cyprus has not changed, Moscow only sees the solution over Cyprus within the frames of the UN principles and that TRNC is known by Russia is not a matter of question.

 

At his interview on 3rd October, 2008, with the special interviewer of Kommersant, Mihail Zıgır, the President of TRNC, Mehmet Ali TALAT, also stated that TRNC is not thinking of recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Osetia.

 

As it is seen neither the policy of Russia over Cyprus has change nor Turkey’s capitulation about its territorial integrity is a matter of question and nor Turkey has taken a decision about presenting TRNC. To top it all, clear stance of the President Talat on unification, his standing apart from the idea of being recognized is clear.

 

In exchange for TRNC Abkhazia contact may seem attractive and also reasonable to many. However, in looking at the political choices of both Turkey and Russia, it is seen that is not possible. It is also a well-known truth that neither the USA nor the EU want independent TRNC and Abkhazia. Recently, those who have seen first Kurdish initiative and after the Armenian initiative may get the idea that these initiatives may expand to Abkhazia. Yet, the truth of the region does not allow this. Turkey which is doing expansion on expansion is not in the situation and position of being against “global obligation”.