Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan is now focusing on the opening borders issue between Turkey and Armenia because of the visit of Obama to Turkey, the messages which he gave in his visit and the coming 24 April.

 

President Obama and President Abdullah Gül made a joint press conference after the meeting and in this conference Obama declared that “my ideas are under record, so I didn’t change them”. After this conference Obama also gave a speech in the Grand National Assembly. In his speech Obama declared that Turkey should normalize its relations with Armenia and Turkey should face with its past. With this speech of Obama all the attention turned to the Turkey-Armenia border. American newspaper made a speculative news about the borders will be opened in 16 April which made the reactions of Azerbaijan gathered.

 

Actually the normalization process of the releations of Turkey and Armenia started two years ago and Azerbaijan was aware of everything which is going on between Armenia and Turkey. The relations between Armenia and Turkey was confidential but after President Gül went to the Erivan for the football match, it has become obvious that Turkey and Armenia still trying to normalize their relations. The visit of Abdullah Gül was indisposed by some of the media in Armenia but this crisis was also passed over easily. But unfortunately the anxiety of Azerbaijan had not came to an end because Azebaijan new that these negotiations could normalize the relations of Turkey and Armenia. This is why the Administration of Azerbaijan was raising its voice everytime they had a chance.

 

According to Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan should also have an assesment role when the Armenia-Turkey relations considered. According to Baku, Turkey should open its borders if Armenia concedes the occupied territories like Nagorno-Karabagh, as it was in 1993. Turkey gave some reasons why the borders should be closed in 1993. First, Armenia should discontinue its attitudes about occupying territories and give over the teriitories of Azerbaijan. Second, Armenia should recognize the territorial integrity of Turkey. Third, Armenia should stop its claims about territory. Forth, Armenia should stop the calumniations about the genocide. Forth, Armenia should stop using the Mountain of Ağrı as a national symbol. Fifth and last, Armenia should take of the aggressive clauses about Turkey from its declaration of independence.

 

Today we see that Armenia didn’t do anything about these reasons which Turkey gave in 1993 when it was closing its borders. However, Armenia doesn’t seem to give up its claims of Genocide what ever Turkey tries to do. The President Serj Sarkisyan declared as personally and as the president of Armenia that he is trying to implement the “Greater Armenia”. The Greater Armenia which Sarkisyan is trying to achieve covers East and Southeast parts of Turkey (called by Sarkisyan as West Armenia) which in the desire to take from Turkey. Turkey was in a full coordination with Azerbaijan when trying to close the borders in 1993.The reason behind closing borders is to force Armenia for peace. Turkey was close to reach its goal for the first time for 16 years because Armenia is trying to find an exit from its bad situation especially after Russia-Georgia war started in 8 August 2008. In this period of time when Armenia is in a bad situation, if Turkey opens the borders it will be very hard for Turkey to force Armenia to peace because this will comfort Armenia. If we remember the claims of the President Ilham Aliyev “We wiil take what is ours with war if not with peace”, we can understand the sensitiveness of the situation. Azerbayjan has an only chance left to take its territory back which is war if Turkey open its borders. In recent years Azerbaijan recorded a mass development in both economy and in its military compared to Armenia. So with this mass development, we should take into consideration of Azerbaijan has a chance to declare a war and take its territory back.

 

On the other hand Armenia has this prolong policy from the beginning. According to this policy, Turkey and Armenia should get away from Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh in their relations. Moreover according to Armenia if it is possible new, false problems should be created between Turkey and Azerbaijan. This point where we get today shows us that Armenia is very close to reach its goals. Turkey always give information to Azerbaijan about the activities which are going on to get rid of the accusation of genocide but there are more other scenarios because there is no information given to the public opinion of both Turkey and Azerbaijan. So Turkey should attempt to do things about its image to intercept new crucial problems in the eyes of the Azerbaijan public opinion because there are more fantasies than informations. The attempts of Turkey is urgent because there are also some groups which are not happy about “two states but one nation”. It would be very hard to guess how far the sadness of Azerbaijan could go in the result of opening the borders because we should state that the relations of Turkey and Azerbaijan are emotional more than reasonable.

No body could guarantee that the claims of genocide will not continue after opening the borders. Moreover, it changes nothing that Obama didn’t use the word genocide this year because he could use it next year. On the contrary, Azerbaijan has a big importance for Turkey because the closeness of the two countries depends on language, religion and nationality. Azerbaijan is important for Turkey because it has a strategic position and it has a rich petrol and natural gas resources which Turkish companies are highly dependent on.

 

The administration of Azerbaijan and the President İlham Aliyev stated that they are against of Turkey opening the Armenian border and the possible opening of the border will effect the relations with Turkey because this event is totally contrary to their interests. Because of these developments we see the Prime Minister Erdoğan declaring that the opening of the border is not an issue unless we won’t achieve any progress about the Nagorno-Karabakh. Besides the Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan declared that they are considering the official declarations of Turkey. It is also argued in the media of Azebaijan that how effective Turkey will be in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue while changing its position in the Rasmussen issue.

 

Today, US is vitally dependent on Turkey about, withdraw from Iraq, Syria issue, Blacksea-Caucasus relations, energy resources and their route in the Middle Asia and the Caspian region, the struggle of terrorism in Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Consequently Turkey should not feel it self weak about dealing with the genocide claims. It is essential to deal with the genocide claims in an other platform because it shouldn’t be a bargaining issue. The genocide claims will not come to an end if it will continue to be discussed all time. So Turkey should make its calculations efficiently because it is important to not to risk the long term strategic interests for the short term tactical steps. It shouldn’t be forgetted that this this long term strategic interests are highly dependent on Azerbaijan.

 

Turkey must force Armenia to peace. If Turkey continue to make concessions to Armenia it seems impossible to force Armenia to peace because Armenia doesn’t give up its agressive attitudes in the region. This rapprochement could force Azerbaijan to take its territory by force and this could trigger different conflicts in the Caucasus region. We shouldn’t forget that Armenia is a member of Collective Security Organization constructed in the leadership of Russia, so in a case of war all the member states especially Russia, will be a part of this conflict. It is crucial to force Armenia to peace to prevent regional conflicts.

 

So we should consider two other issues. First is the TRNC issue which took part in the media. Some press members and some specialists who are not aware of the situation declared that Azerbaijan also didn’t recognize TRNC as an answer to the reactions of Azerbaijan. But they should know that if Azerbaijan recognizes TRNC then other countries like Greece and Cyprus will get the chance to recognize the Armenian administration as an independent state in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. This would put Azerbaijan in a very bad position. Besides, this could also raise the pressure of EU on Azerbaijan. On the other hand the todays administration of TRNC didn’t demand this from Azerbaijan. On the contrary, when Pakistan tried to recognize TRNC, the TRNC administration didn’t want that. The only thing which Azerbaijan should done is to start the flight services directly to TRNC from Azerbaijan. So Azerbaijan done its proportion of the work.

 

The other issue is when the borders will be opened. If we look at the situation there is this misunderstanding of the borders will open very soon. We should know that this is a process and the borders will not open at latest in October 2009. But it is possible to be opened before June because the Armenian bill will come to the American Congress.

 

Today, Turkey has a severe diplomacy traffic. Turkey should eventually start to fix its image in the eyes of the Azrbaijan public opinion. Also the reactions which are coming from Azerbaijan should not be discussed in the level of domestic politics. Also these reactions coming from Azerbaijan could be used in an efficient way by using them in a right way in the bargaining with Armenia. Like US, Turkey should also follow the path of using the requests of citizens which are not accepting the opening of the border unless Armenia take steps to solve the problems. This shouldn’t be understood as a criticism to goverment but it should be used as a tool to gain power in the bargaining process.   

 

Another important case is, today Turkey come to a point to take certain steps. But when Turkey is trying to take these steps it also want Armenia to contribute. But we don’t expect the contribution of Armenia in this level. As Armenia aware of, if it normalize its relations with Turkey then there will be no support coming from US administration and Congress about the genocide claims. There is no reason for Armenia to stop its policy which is coming from the past. For us, Armenia will not negotiate with Turkey and wait untill 24 April, and the bill comes to the Congressin June. So there is this a little chance that Armenia will negotiate about Nagorno-Karabakh issue until June. Also we don’t know that Armenia will ask from Turkey to open its borders until June. This is why the President of Armenia Sarkisyan declared that he is expecting the borders to open in October 2009. So Turkey shouldn’expect any steps from Armenia because it will never happen. Azerbaijan is aware of that and this why it is reacting to Turkey. So Turkey should understand all these for taking the right directions. Is it valuable for Turkey to take steps besides all these? Or Turkey should take a step because it knows all these? Is Turkey trying to damage the games of Armenia by doing all these?