As we have mentioned before, the new foreign policy of Barack Obama had became obvious starting from his election campaign that Afghanistan will be the mainstream of the foreign policy. It was also known that the Obama administration will give important roles to Turkey concerning the Afghanistan policies. But especially after US had been taken out from the Manas military base in Kyrgyzstan, it was known that the role of Turkey would be much higher in the territory after US became insulated from the region. That’s why Obama administration will make an important visit to Turkey after Canada (if we don’t count the generally intended meetings in Europe).
We are witnessing that there is acceleration in the visits to Afghanistan before the visit of Obama to Turkey. In March 31st, 2009 International Conference of Afghanistan had been made in Hague. Representatives from 70 states contributed to this conference and Iran was one of them. It was very hopeful for Afghanistan that US and Iran negotiated inside this conference which Russia was not even represented. The improvement in the relations between US and Iran also showed that Iran has a pragmatist foreign policy. Iran generally is a state which denies the cooperation with US, but this was not the case concerning Iraq and Afghanistan and it is also obvious that it won’t be the case in the near future. The reason for why Iran cooperated with US concerning Iraq and Afghanistan is mainly because the “enemies” were same. Both the Saddam regime and the Taliban were perceived as threats by Iran also. That’s why it is expected Iran to cooperate with US concerning Afghanistan as it was in Iraq.
Turkey was invited together with US to another meeting about Afghanistan last week, inside the framework of Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
Turkey was also the host to another meeting before the visit of Obama. This summit meeting has an interesting timing. President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai and President of Pakistan Asıf Ali Zerdari had come together with the host of President Abdullah Gül in April 1st, 2009. In this summit security aspect of the region and the associated projects of the three countries were discussed. This summit was the third, after the cooperation began between the three countries in 2007.
The most important part of this summit was the Chiefs of General Staff and the Chiefs of National Intelligence Agency of the three countries had also come together and negotiated. It must be remembered that especially in Pakistan, the Chief of General Staff and the Chief of National Intelligence Agency are both important powers besides the president. It is extremely important to cooperate and coordinate with these agencies concerning security based activities in the line between Afghanistan-Pakistan in this new era. The US led operations in Afghanistan has zero chance of success before the disputes between Afghanistan and Pakistan had been solved because the two countries are in dead trouble with each other.
It must be remembered that Afghanistan, which is the mainstream of the US foreign policy, is invulnerable if we look at the history. This fact should force one to learn from the mistakes in history. Iraq had become a marsh to the Bush administration. And Afghanistan will be a harsh exam for the Obama administration. Obama should not expect a victory in Afghanistan and he should know that it is important to struggle as much as possible in an equated period of time. On the other hand, it is not enough to deplete Al Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan for a total victory. The incident is not only in the boundaries of Afghanistan but Pakistan is also infected. So there is the necessity to intervene in Pakistan otherwise it is impossible to solve this incident. Pakistan is neither Afghanistan nor Iraq. Pakistan is a state; which can’t be totally controlled, which has WMD’s, which in some parts using Sharia laws and which there is a big efficiency of the Chief of General Staff and some other intelligence departments besides the president in the state. The US led operations can trigger undesirable actions in the region. That’s why it would be much harder for Obama in this region, than Bush in Iraq, so Obama needs the peremptory support of Turkey in the territory. It should be added that there is a large population of Turkish people living in Afghanistan and the leader of this group, General Dostum, expelled by the will of US. According to some claims the expel of General Dostum is executed by Turkey.
In the new era especially after Davos, the determination of Turkey is not in the Middle East but in the South Asia. From now on the new geography which Turkey will make mediation efforts and actions will not be the Middle East but the South Asia. This unforeseen attention of Obama to Turkey is totally related with this. Middle East will be left to France and Egypt and Turkey will come to the scene in the South Asia. Turkey will also have an active role inside the NATO. Besides all these, it is important to see how Turkey will act about France turning back to the military branch of NATO and Rasmussen, supporter of the Roj TV, who is the candidate of becoming Secretary General of NATO.
We think that Turkey has not made its decision about to veto the candidacy of Rasmussen to become the Secretary General of NATO. As you know the most prior mission of NATO is struggling with terrorism in the new era. The effort which Rasmussen showing to not to close the TV channel of the terrorist organization is understood by Turkey that Rasmussen is giving support to terrorism in an indirect way. So Turkey doesn’t want somebody who is supporting terrorism, become the head of an organization which is fighting with terrorism. Turkey can only give approval to Rasmussen if certain guarantees are given. The utmost guarantee is the close down of the Roj TV. But after all even Turkey is a powerful member of NATO, it is not easy for Turkey to struggle for something which majority of other member states came into consensus.