President Abdullah Gül will pay a belated visit to Russian Federation on February 12-15, 2009. Originally, the visit was planned for December 2008, but it was postponed because of an illness related to Gül’s ear. The visit, which will cover Moscow and Kazan, is going to take place due to official invitation of President of the Russian Federation, Dmitri Medyedev. The visit will be considered as “official state visit”.

President Abdullah Gül’s visit will take place during a time that our region is experiencing fairly sensitive days. Considering the last 6 months, we witnessed significant developments in the geopolitical region that also includes Russia and Turkey. These developments are;

·         Disputes starting from August 8, 2008 between Georgia and South Ossetia have become a global problem with the intervention of Russia.

·         Following this war, USA and NATO battleships entered the Black Sea for the purpose of aiding Georgia which resulted with the increasing tension in the region.

·         In regard to NATO’s expansion policy towards east, Georgia and Ukraine were demanded to be a part of the organization, but they could not received a membership because some EU countries, USA and Turkey did not support it following the strong oppositions from Russia.

·         Russia strongly opposed to USA’s demand for establishing radar base and missile defense systems in Poland and Czech Republic. Yet, succeeding George Bush, Barack Obama stated that they are not going to give up establishing these systems.

·         Consequent to the problems between Russia and Ukraine, the natural gas flow to the Europe was stopped during the harsh winter days and a serious energy crisis was experienced. Following the crisis, Nabucco Line and Blue Stream 2 has come into question again. This time more effectively.

·         Although Russia declines it, with the influence of this country, Kirghizstan declared that she is going to shut down the USA owned Manas military base.

·         Turkey’s proposal for the Caucasian Cooperation and Stability Pact turned into reality with its first meeting carried out in Istanbul.

·         Economic crisis started to effect Turk republics and Russia deeply. Although it is not on the agenda in Turkey, it is obvious that the crisis will affect Turkish businessmen in the region.

 

President Abdullah Gül will visit Russian Federation in an environment that above developments are experienced and their effects are deeply felt. As the visit will be considered as “state visit, de facto agreements are not expected to be signed. However, undoubtedly mutual and regional developments including a wide range of topics from economics to politics, from trade to energy will be discussed. It is predicted during this visit, President Gül and President Medyedev will sign a “mutual declaration” regarding to the deepening of good fellowship and multidimensional cooperation in order for relations between Turkish Republics and Russian Federation to proceed to a new phase. Following Gül’s visit, Medyedev’s Turkey visit will be on the agenda. It’s predicted that the topics, which’s infrastructure will be prepared during Gül’s visit, wil be ready for signature during Medyedev’s visit. During this visit, it’s assumed that the following topic will be discussed:

 

 

President Abdullah Gül will visit another administrative entity besides from Moscow for the first time in a long while. The visit also covers Tatarstan, the largest autonomous republic in Russian Federation whose population mainly consists of Muslim Tatar Turks. Gül will meet with Tatarstan President Mintimer Şaymiyev during his visit to capital city, Kazan. Tatarstan, independent in her domestic affairs, but dependant to Federation in her foreign affairs, has trading representative office in Turkey and there is a wide trading potential among two countries. President Abdullah Gül’s visit to Kazan is also important in regard for Turkey to improve her relations with regional entities besides central government. In the previous years, Moscow had an idea about Turkey as: “Turkey is trying to establish Pan-Turanism in Caucasus and Central Asia. After some time, Turkey will aim to spread these ideas to Turk and Muslim republics and regions inside the federation. Because of this reason, Turkey’s relations with these regions should be restricted.” However, passing years showed that Turkey has no such intensions and furthermore, Middle East got ahead of Turk republics in Turkish foreign policy. In this regard, Turkish delegations relations with Turk entities and their administrations inside the Russian Federation are not considered suspicious as it was once. This situation is significant as it indicates a new era with mutual trust in Turkish and Russian relations.

In September 2008, a protocol was signed between Turkey and Russia in order to simplify custom procedures. This protocol has become effective in October. However, Turkish products are still having problems in Russian customs. Undoubtedly, problems in customs will be one of the main agenda topics in this visit. Furthermore, it’s expected Samsun-Soçi railway freight business over ro-ro, which Turkey is working on for a long time, will take its final shape during this visit. In case of this project come into existence, the problems of Turkey in the Russian customs will finalize partially. We stated “partially”, because it not expected for this problems to be solved completely. Generally, Turkey sends products to Russia by containers and instead of their real values these products are paying custom taxes over their tonnages. Russia requests this issue to be ended. In this regard, it’s not possible for Turkey and Russian custom problems to be solved before this issue resolved.

 

Turkey’s complicated nuclear power station auction results are finally declared last month and it’s announced that a Russian-Turkish shared company has won the auction. However, the bid was found too high and a new bid was prepared which resulted with suspicions. Furthermore, some parties mentioned it is possible for this auction to be cancelled and given to a Western company. In this content, it is expected that Russia will mention her sensitivity about this issue during the visit.

 

Russian Federation is one of the few countries which do not accept PKK to their terrorist organization list. They mention the reason behind this is PKK is not active in Russian territory. However, it’s known that the real reasons are Turkey do not declare some Chechens as terrorists and Russia’s attempts to get closer to some Kurds in Iraq. In this visit, it’s expected that Gül will be insistent in this topic.

Russia is one of the countries Kurdology studies are widely and effectively held. In this content, Kurds have a significant place in Russia’s Iraq and regional policies.

Subjects, most importantly Middle East after Gaza War, Iran’s nuclear operations, Turkey’s mediation attempt for Nagorno Karabakh issue and expansion in Armenian issue, Abkhazia and South Ossetia problems and also the recent developments of Manas base that took place in Black Sea region and Central Asia are expected to be discussed. In the course of Afghanistan expansion of Obama administration, the need that appears for Manas base or new bases in replacements necessarily bring Tajikistan and/or Uzbekistan to mind. The absence of options of these republics then puts the alternatives of Georgia and Trabzon into the agenda.

Following the Caucasian War, Turkey’s neutrality regarding to the attempts of USA and NATO ships to enter the Black Sea region, brought advantage to Russia. This proved Turkey’s importance in the region. In this content, we see headlines as “Turkey should be re-discovered” in the Russian press.

We think that the most significant issue of this visit will be Russia’s offer for Blue Stream 2 to Turkey. Five years ago, a similar proposal was brought to Turkey, but Turkey did not accept this line. Now, it is expected for this issue to be further discussed.