President Abdullah Gül went on a one-day visit to Baku to remove doubts in Azerbaijan his recent trip to Yerevan may have raised as well as to inform Azerbaijani officials about what transpired in Armenia.

 

During his visit to Baku, Gül also spoke about the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform, recent developments in the region, the existing situation and security of energy corridors and the question of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Although some press outlets referred to Gül’s visit as an attempt to mend Turkey’s relationship with Azerbaijan in light of the topics discussed, it is also likely that the visit was aimed to serve as a spark to Turkey taking on the role of mediator in the region. The Turkish media were not provided with extensive information on the content of Gül’s talks with Armenian state officials, but his meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan’s Yerevan visit to speak with his Armenian counterpart, Edward Nalbandian, suggest they focused on deeper issues.

 

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group and the group’s member countries, namely, the United States, France and Russia, fell short of expectations to find a peaceful and negotiated resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Furthermore, they tried to exclude Turkey from the process of looking for a solution to the problem by rejecting proposals by Turkey to contribute to the process. Undoubtedly, Armenia played a significant role in this. However, the existing situation demonstrates that the OSCE Minsk Group can no longer contribute to the solution of the crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For this reason, one may expect the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group in the days ahead and its replacement with a new mechanism to be generated within the framework of the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform.

 

It is well known that the deadlock over Nagorno-Karabakh highly disturbs Azerbaijan, which has kept the military option on the table. Azerbaijan is no longer like it was at the beginning of the 1990s. It now has the military and economic power to take back Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia is aware of this fact and the prospect of Azerbaijan declaring war terrifies it. Azerbaijan may take such a step at any time, especially after the brief war between Russia and Georgia. There are also claims that Azerbaijan has taken initiatives to do just that.

 

Armenia has for long striven to open the border with Turkey. If no strong objections come from Azerbaijan, border gates could be opened. Certainly, recognizing the border should take place before the border gates can be opened. In this regard, Turkey and Armenia could agree on their borders in line with the articles of the Treaty of Alexandropol (Gümrü), signed in 1920, and the 1921 Treaty of Kars. This would mean Armenia no longer seeing Turkey’s eastern provinces as “Western Armenia.” It is necessary to note that Armenia has for long been ready to take a step to this end.

 

During US Vice President Dick Cheney’s visit to Azerbaijan as part of a visit to the region on Sept. 3, 2008, a very interesting issue came to the agenda. Cheney spoke with Azerbaijani President İlham Aliyev about the prospects of having the Nabucco pipeline run through Armenia. The Cheney-Aliyev meeting took place in a chilly setting. As soon as Cheney left Baku, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called Baku to speak with Aliyev.

 

Having the Nabucco pipeline run through Armenia is actually something the US has wanted for a long time; however, circumstances were not mature. Now, a suitable environment has been created to achieve this. Notably, after the war in Georgia, some suggested Georgia will destabilize. Hence, apart from the US, which gives diplomatic support to having the Nabucco pipeline go through Armenia, finance circles that will allocate funds for this project have begun to prioritize Armenia as an alternative to Georgia. The fact that Nabucco’s route will be shorter and financially more advantageous and that Armenia is more stable compared to Georgia renders Armenia an attractive route for pipelines in the new period. The prospects of Russia using the energy issue as a trump card following the Russia-West dispute in the aftermath of the Georgian war has urged the West to seek alternative routes. In this regard, the chances for the Nabucco pipeline have increased while the chances of the Russian-proposed South Stream pipeline have diminished.

 

In this new geopolitical environment the West is trying to secure Europe’s energy security with the Nabucco project on the one hand while on the other it wants this pipeline to turn into a peace line between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia by making it cross Armenia. The West thereby calculates that it could save Armenia from Russian control (even if only partially).

In the meantime, it is important to note that Energy and Natural Resources Minister Hilmi Güler met with Aliyev and former Azerbaijani Energy and Natural Resources Minister Natiq Aliyev when he went to Baku. During this meeting, which took place before President Gül’s Yerevan visit, they discussed the supply of 8 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Turkey from the phase two natural gas site in the Shah Deniz region, which is expected to be launched in 2013.

 

Another item on the agenda at the meetings will be the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform. Despite the risks involved, Turkey should be insistent over this proposal. Georgia and Russia openly declared that they would support this project under some conditions. Azerbaijan took a cautious approach towards the proposal and appears to have remained cautious. On the other hand, it should be noted that Russia, which underlined that it would not discuss this proposal unless Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is removed from office, is now warm to the establishment of the platform, given the changing conditions.

 

Apparently, instituting relations between Turkey and Armenia has been a matter of discussion within diplomatic circles for a long time but the right time and the right venue was sought. Therefore, we could say that all these negotiations have just begun. Gül will probably meet with US President George W. Bush as well as Sarksyan during his visit to the US on Sept. 20. Moreover, a visit by Bush to the region is scheduled to take place in November.

 

Another issue President Gül is expected to address is Nagorno-Karabakh, which has remained unresolved since its breakout in 1988. In fact, Yerevan is not expected to take any action or step in regard to this issue. Azerbaijan offered it the status of a loose federation and autonomy to this breakaway republic, but Armenians rejected the proposal. This could be explained by the presence of eagerness to have an independent state because Azerbaijan has nothing else to offer.

 

Armenia’s major policy regarding Nagorno-Karabakh entails that the issue should not be tied to Armenian-Turkish relations, but that it should be considered separately. Former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan made an explicit offer on this matter. In short, Kocharyan held that Turkish-Armenian relations should not be dependent on the interests of third countries. At the current point, Azerbaijani interests have been taken out of the context of Turkish-Armenian relations because Armenia has no intention to compromise the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan, who attended the ceremony held to observe the 17th anniversary of the so-called independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, noted in his speech that they would not waver from the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh.

 

Considering that Azerbaijan will not take any action in relation to the issues outlined above unless progress is made in regards to Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia may need to take some steps on this matter. Armenia may make a gesture by withdrawing its troops from occupied territories with the exception of Nagorno-Karabakh. It had occupied these areas in an effort to have a strong hand during negotiations in the first place. Armenian authorities may take action by declaring that they have given up on these lands. Armenians, however, will not withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh. It should be noted that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is as sensitive a problem for Armenians as it is for Azerbaijan. However, agreeing to hold negotiations with Armenian authorities, open the borders and the existing railway line and attempt to redesign the Nabucco project to include this line simply because it has withdrawn from a few settlements will confirm that Nagorno-Karabakh has been lost for good; therefore, forcing Azerbaijan to proceed with such an option will create irreparable problems. In such a case, current and future Azerbaijani generations will hold Turkey responsible for this.

 

Regardless of what is discussed, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is the most fundamental one in relations between Turkey-Armenia and Azerbaijan. Without making any progress on this issue, no further step could be ever taken vis-à-vis other bilateral issues. Turkey has decided to serve as a mediator on this matter. For this reason, the main issue in Gül’s visit to Baku will be the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and Armenia’s new offer. In a report I authored based on my observations during a visit to Armenia in 2004, I noted that Armenian President Sarksyan, who was the defense minister at the time, would most likely become president after the end of Kocharyan’s term in office, adding that he would make some gestures during his office given that he was a businessman. Hopefully, Sarksyan takes new steps. Otherwise, bilateral relations between Turkey and Armenia may deteriorate further.

 

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*Sinan Oğan is head of the Ankara-based International Relations and Strategic Analysis Center (TÜRKSAM).