The pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, leader of what became known as the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine, has issued a decree to dissolve the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and hold new elections on May 27, 2007. A political crisis has dominated the country ever since, with the opposition refusing to hold early elections.
While the West had supported Yushchenko during the Orange Revolution, Ukraine has not received the same economic and political support since the revolution nor has been allowed to join NATO or the EU. Yushchenko’s corrupted and unlawful actions became a matter of public scrutiny and soon almost everyone realized the Orange Revolution would not turn out as promised. Ultimately, the Orange Coalition dissolved because of cases of corruption and Russian support for Viktor Yanukovych.
When thousands of the supporters of Ukrainian Prime Minister Yanukovych marched to the gates of the pro-Western president’s office in Kiev to protest Yushchenko’s decision to dissolve the parliament, concern increased that the public would take the matter to the streets. In 2004, during the Orange Revolution, Zaman newspaper had reported that those who controlled the streets would win the struggle. Back then, the “Orange” leaders controlled the streets and the “Orange Coalition” won the struggle in the end. Zaman had said that even if Yushchenko and his supporters won the elections, Yanukovych would still win a substantial amount of votes and would seize an opportunity in the future to take revenge against Yushchenko. Then in March 2006, Yanukovych won the most votes in the elections, and his mission today is to defeat Yushchenko and the Orange Revolution. Ukrainians will once again witness a battle between the West and Russia, a country that is more ready for battle than ever before.
Yushchenko wants to dissolve the parliament because Prime Minister Yanukovych’s weight in the cabinet has continued to increase. Out of 450 seats in parliament, Yanukovych has the support of 260 parliamentarians. Most recently, Yanukovych managed to obtain the support of 15 parliamentarians, 11 of whom had previously supported Yushchenko and four who had supported Timoshenko. Although Yushchenko lashed out and applied to the Constitutional Court, claiming that desertions from one party to another represented a “partial cancellation of the political results of elections,” no legal action has been taken. While supporters of Prime Minister Yanukovych accused Yushchenko of an attempted coup, the prime minister rejected Yushchenko’s decree to dissolve parliament. The decree was approved in parliament. The parliament is expected to take up the issue of early elections in the upcoming days.
The only possible authority to settle the crisis was the chairman of the Constitutional Court, Ivan Dombrovsky, but he was forced to step down because of political pressure, making the case more complicated. There have been claims that the court did not accept Dombrovsky’s resignation.
Ukrainian President Yushchenko met with the Security Council on April 5 and declared a state of emergency. The declaration was taken as a sign that Yushchenko could attempt to control the country according to his own initiative.
In the event of a civil confrontation, the Ministry of Interior Affairs will most likely be under the control of socialists and Yanukovych supporters. But the National Security Council and the Ministry of Defense will most likely align with the president, especially since Defense Minister Anatoli Gritsenko has announced that he would strictly follow the president’s orders. Unlike during the civil war of 2004, the military will not be neutral this time and opposing views will be declared. This could lead to a clash within the military. All things considered, a crisis today will be far more dangerous and threatening than the 2004 Orange Revolution.
While some 24 regional governors supported Yushchenko’s decree to dissolve parliament, the governors of Kiev, Sevastpool and Crimea did not. This shows that the military, the armed forces and some members of the administration and bureaucracy support Yushchenko, while the majority of the public support Yanukovych.
The main reason Yushchenko would like to hold early elections is because his former revolution associate Timoshenko could win the parliamentary elections and become the new prime minister. The political struggle between Timoshenko and Yanukovych is expected to increase.
A civil war in Ukraine is bound to affect Turkey and European countries, because the most important natural gas pipelines pass through Ukraine.
Ukraine has not been able to rid itself from the effects of the Cold War. It has always been a historic battlefield between the West and East, and the public has been divided into either pro-West or pro-East. Take, for example, the 2004 presidential elections. Catholics, who are mainly supporters of the west, and the major provinces, supported Yushchenko, and Orthodox, who are mainly supporters of the east, along with Russian descendents, supported Yanukovych. Today, however, the majority of people, including the capital, support Yanukovych.
Similar developments are expected in the two other Orange Revolution countries, Kyrgyzstan in the short term, and Georgia in the middle term.
* President of the Turkish Center for International Relations and Strategic Analysis (TÜRKSAM)