Membership | New Member
   09 July 2008 Wednesday
Middle East & Africa
Russia & Ukrain
Caucasian
Turkestan
Asia-Pacific
South Asia
Turkey
The Balkans
USA
Cyprus
Geopolitical & Strategy
International Law
Information Technologies
Nanotechnology
Projects and Development Aid
Media
International Organizations
About Us
Chairman
Administrative Board
Consultancy Board
Academic Board
Our Staff
Representatives
Training in TÜRKSAM
Links
E-Publications
Address : Yukarı  Sokak   No:8 Gazi /  ANKARA
 GSM: (536) 569 8191
info@turksam.org
Azerbaijan Intrigue
26 October 2005 Azerbaijan [10] [12] [14] [16]
Ariel Cohen


About - Archive

Parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan, an oil-rich republic on the western shores of the Caspian Sea, are scheduled for Nov. 6. They have all the trappings of a James Bond movie. In fact, the film 'The World is not Enough,' which centered on the struggle to control Caspian Sea oil, was shot in the capital, Baku, in 1999.

But now it is life's turn to imitate art. Today's intrigue in Azerbaijan includes power struggles, a clash between geopolitical giants the U.S., Russia and Iran, an ethnic conflict with Armenia, and refugees. Add corruption, lots of oil and gas, and serve hot. This is a perfect mix for a first-rate thriller.

This is a three-way struggle. President Ilham Aliev's party, New Azerbaijan, is pitted against a fractious opposition coalition called Azadlyg (Freedom). There is also a struggle inside the Aliev political machine that he inherited from his father Heydar, who ruled Azerbaijan with an iron fist for three decades.

The recent scandal, which is still developing, involves arrests of Ali Insanov, the notoriously corrupt former minister of health, and Farhad Aliev, the ex-minister of economic development. Farhad and his brother Rafiq, the owner of the largest private petroleum company (no relations to President Ilham Aliev), are accused of funding Rasul Guliev, opposition leader who was recently arrested in Ukraine and returned to London. Azerbaijan issued international warrants against Mr. Guliev on charges of embezzlement and sedition.

Ministers of finance, labor and a presidential aide were also dismissed and arrested. The minister of education, also widely reported as corrupt, may be next. These steps are likely to position President Aliev as a tough leader who fights corruption and will increase his popularity.

The United States is watching oil-rich Azerbaijan like a hawk. The Bush administration expects the 'upcoming election in Azerbaijan to be fair. Azerbaijan 'has to realize that a free, fair and just election will advance this country's democratic development,' National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said last week in Moscow.

However, this is a tough test of the Bush administration in a strategically important area, coveted by Russia, China and Iran. The Nov. 6 parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan put to test the declared U.S. policy of promoting democratization. Washington is trying to reconcile the reality of national interests with a deeply felt desire to see the world free and democratic.

American interests in Azerbaijan include oil production in the Caspian, attracting oil from Kazakhstan for the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, which will be opened this fall, settling the Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijanis and Armenians, and possibly deploying troops and building a military base for a future confrontation with Iran, if and when it comes.

Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia who is close to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, speaking in Baku recently, said the U.S. does not export revolutions. 'Revolution is a failure,' Mr. Fried said. But U.S. supports 'orange revolutions' if that means support for freedom, reforms and democracy, he added.

This assessment compliments Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar's view that 'an orange revolution is not expected in Azerbaijan.' Mr. Lugar should know: he was the personal envoy of President Bush on the ground in Kiev during the Ukrainian revolution of December 2004. Sen. John McCain, Arizona Republican, has launched a sense of the Senate resolution calling for transparency in elections. The resolution was co-sponsored by Mr. Lugar and fellow Republican Sens. Sam Brownback of Kansas, a friend of Azerbaijan, and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, and Democrat Joe Biden of Delaware.

The outcome of the elections will be judged on their transparency and lack of government interference. The U.S. Agency for International Development is funding a large exit poll mission with over 1,000 exit poll stations, which will provide independent results shortly after the elections are over. This works in Mr. Aliev's favor, as experts pointed out that accusations of stolen elections could trigger popular unrest, which occurred in Georgia and Ukraine. The Washington Times


http://www.turksam.org/en/a181.html
Send to your friend Read 388 times Print
 
Comments
   Headline : 
  Comment : 
(Do not use characters '<' and '>' in your comments.) 

* You need to 'log in' order to comment.

  
None of the information depicted in TURKSAM site can be used without citation. All rights reserved according to Copyrights Law of Turkey. TURKSAM site is non-profit portal. Authors are responsible for their articles.
Most Read in the Site
Why Armenia Must Revise Its Current Policy Against Turkey?
Read 1192 times
Russian - American Relations In The Putin Period
Read 1110 times
Turkey’s Role in The Foreign And Security Policy Of The EU
Read 1066 times
The Russia Ukraine Region in Turkish Foreign Policy in the Year 2004 and Expectations from the Year 2005
Read 1043 times
The Black Sea: New Arena for Global Competition
Read 985 times
Most Commented
Russia’s New Democracy Concept: Managed Democracy
Commented 0 times
The Chances Increasing on Burgas-Alexandropolis as Alternative to the Strait
Commented 0 times
The ‘Orange Revolution’ in Ukraine
Commented 0 times
Russian roulette with the 'axis of evil'
Commented 0 times
Politics and oligarchs in Russia
Commented 0 times
Copyright © 2004 - 2008 TÜRKSAM - All rights reserved.
Currently 36 visitors and 0 members active in or web pages.
Design and programming by TURKSAM – Center for Infrmation Technologies
Best viewed under 1024x768 definition.