In what was once the Soviet Union, the political landscape is changing dramatically. One regime falls after another. So who's next? Although the violent uprisings in Uzbekistan have garnered greatest attention of late, Azerbaijan looks like more fertile ground for a democratic turnover.

This Caspian basin country of eight million holds special significance for the West, and its oil majors. Last month, the long-awaited Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline opened, linking Azeri and eventually Kazak oil fields with Western markets. But the political environment isn't as promising as the business one. Two years ago, President Ilham Aliyev, a young man with a taste for the dolce vita, inherited power from his father, Heydar, in disputed elections. This monarchic transition brought peaceful demonstrators out into the streets of the capital, Baku, who were ruthlessly attacked by police. Hundreds were wounded and two killed.

The outcome was bitterly ironic. Azeris were the first Muslim nation to form a democratic republic that granted universal suffrage to its citizens. Under the leadership of Musavat Party and its founder and Azerbaijan's national leader, M.E. Resulzade, the country had a seat in the League of Nations in 1918, before being annexed by the Soviet Union. This history suggests that Azeris won't abide with authoritarianism for long, and can make a smooth transition to democracy.

Indeed, the democratic upheavals in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan have heartened Azeri democrats. The pro-Western opposition -- this time again under the Musavat umbrella -- already claims a moral high ground that the ruling elites, mostly former Communist Party officials who at one time opposed Azeri independence, never had. In contrast to the current regime, the leaders of the democratic block represent all the layers of Azeri society and are now more acceptable to the wider masses, who've been inspired by the example of places like Georgia.

But for now, Azerbaijan can be classified among the world's 'pseudodemocracies.' Its written constitution, parliament, state institutions and nominally free courts create the illusion of democracy -- a common problem in the region. Underneath, the Azeri system is in fact defined by clan politics, nepotism and predatory corruption. In the last two years, aware of the growing threat to its hold on power from the grassroots, the government has also stepped up efforts to suppress opposition parties and NGOs and to restrict the right to demonstrate or speak freely.

One of the country's best journalists, Elmar Huseinov, and frequent critic of the current regime, was shot dead in the entrance of his apartment block. The killers were never apprehended. The murder shook the country, and eerily resembled the case of Georgy Gongadze, the Ukrainian dissident journalist allegedly beheaded by that country's secret police. Gongadze became a martyr for last year's Orange Revolution in Ukraine.

Such disrespect for civil liberties, and the use of state terror, is creating a schism between the rulers and the ruled in Azerbaijan. Adding to that split is the dire economic situation. Almost half of Azeris live below the poverty line in spite of the country's oil riches. A million refugees remain homeless after fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh during the conflict with Armenia there more than a decade ago. At the same time, the Aliyev family and its friends have grown wealthy through business monopolies. The court system is rotten, staffed by incompetent and corrupt judges who carried out the government's wishes in political show trials after the 2003 demonstrations.

The danger, of course, is that this discontent will find an outlet in extremist Islam, as in Uzbekistan. In a recent poll, one-fifth of Azeris favored Islamic Sharia law. But especially in the wake of Huseinov's death, civil society is putting down stronger roots. Georgia and Ukraine are the immediate inspiration. New political organizations are now more vocally than ever demanding the resignation of Mr. Aliyev and his government.

Yox (which means 'No' in Azeri) and the Movement of October 16 stand out. Yox is composed mostly of university students and modeled after Ukraine's Pora ('It's Time') movement. The Azeri group was instrumental in organizing a pro-democracy rally in Baku on June 4 that drew around 20,000. The sight of thousands demonstrating for free and fair elections raises hopes that the parliamentary poll in November, a crucial date for any observer of Azeri politics, can mark a change with the past. The government allowed this march in response to domestic and international pressure.

The Movement of October 16 was formed by seven opposition leaders jailed for the last 17 months. They're less optimistic about the prospects of peaceful democratic change. According to Rauf Arifoglu, the most outspoken of those leaders, the regime will turn violent against protests at any hint that its hold on power was in jeopardy. That's the Uzbek model. Monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe recently warned the Baku government against using force against domestic opponents. The government recently overhauled the security services, promoting hardliners who organized the crackdown in October 2003.

All this should be of grave concern to Western policymakers. But Azerbaijan's and Central Asia's current crises also present an opportunity. By their nature, authoritarian regimes are a danger to stability and global order. We should also note that true pro-democracy movements are not simply out to replace one ruler with another. What they seek is a fundamental change in the rules of the game that govern relations between the government and citizens. As it claims to be doing in the Middle East, the West needs to back wholeheartedly the move toward genuine democracy in Central Asia -- be it in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan or Azerbaijan.

Mr. Hüsseinov, an Azeri national, is professor of economics at Bilkent University in Ankara. The Wall Street Journal - June 17, 2005