As Turkey awaits visit by Pres. Putin, and in that context, the signing of important agreements in this visit, with pipelines topping the agenda, the Russians are about to conclude the negotiations with Bulgaria and Greece regarding construction of pipeline as an alternative to the Strait£ As debates continue in Turkey, especially as to which of the Trans-Thrace or Samsun-Ceyhan line is to be selected;, the (attempts to) development of policies without heed of competing lines or more accurately, the striking lack of policy and prevalence of indecision is helping to strengthen the hand of Bulgaria and Greece

A news item appearing in the Bulgarian daily “Monitor” on November 6, 2004, refers to an announcement made on November 5th by the Bulgarian Ministry of Public Works to the effect that Greece, Bulgaria and Russia have arrived at an understanding concerning the building of the Burghas-Alexandropolis line This Project which has a history of about 10 years, actually had already been agreed to under an MOU signed in January of 2003. However, had not been implemented because Russia declined to co-sign.

According to Valentin Tserovsk4 the Minister of Public Works, the tripartite Memorandum is to be signed in Sofia in December. Stating that a historical era is dawning in the relations between their three countries, the Greek Minister Dimitris Siufas has declared that “in 10 years, we have succeeded in removing the obstacles faced, however there is stili a lot to be done to realize the project’~

The cost of the Burghas-Alexandropolis line which is to transport 35 million tons of Russian crude annually coming in transit from the Russian port of Novorossyk, from Burghas (Bulgaria) to Alexandropolis (Greece) is stated as approximately 700 million USD.

While with the advent of this MOU and the support fflom the Russian company LUKOIL, the chances of this line of279 kilometers has increased, the chances for Trans-Thrace and Samsun-Ceyhan in Turkey have automatically (correspondingly) been reduced This Project also is in competition with the Bulgaria-Macedonia-A ibania pipeline being proposed by the US-Ambro Consortium

The efforts to locate alternative routes for Russian oil, bypassing the Straits goes back to about ten years. The ffirst attempt in 2004 in regard to this, originated with PreL Putin ‘5 address to the Duma and the public on May 26, 2004. The Russian Government followed this up, with the Russian Ministry of Industry & Energy organizing a meeting on June 8, 2004, along with participation of representatives from Russian companies, to discuss the subject of moving Russian oil by bypassing the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles.

Russia which produces in excess of 200 million tons of oil and products annually, moves 120-130 million tons of these via pipelines and the rest by tankers. However, the bottlenecks in the Straits, the increase in traffic and certain restrictions introduced from the standpoint of environment have caused the Russians to think that their oil exports are going to be hampered Aside from Russia, the U.S. and Azerbajcani companies also extensively utilize the Straits.

About 50,000 ships traverse the Turkish Straits every year, which comes to about 142 ships per day, or one vessel every 4 hours. When the extensive local marine traffic (1500 vessels) is added to this, it must be realized that 1642 vessels ply these waters every day.

The dangerous cargo (e.g., crude oil and oit products, LPG, flammables, explosives, chemicals, liquid ammonia, nuclear loads and wastes) which pass through the Turkish Straits reached in recent years, an average of 103 millon tons per year. Tanker transport today is being effected under very difficult circumstances and accidents could happen any time. Between 1991-1992 alone 95 marine accidents have occurred In the “Nassia” tanker incident in 1994, Istanbul was saved of a great disaster. More recently, the «Volganefl-248” incident has caused pollution due to oil spill. In an accident of greater scale, Istanbul will suffer not only sea pollution but the loss of life and property, as well The potential oil spills will adversely affect the eco-system and cause irrepairable losses.

As will be seen clearly, the Turkish Straits have reached their optimum capacity insofar as number of vessels passing on the basis of secure-trafficking. As it is not possible to alter the physical structure thereof the forcing of a further increase of this capacity will mean an increased risk of inviting great catasthropes from the standpoints of safe traffic, safety of life and property and of environment

With the introduction of crudes from the Caspian Basin, it is estimated that crude transport will increase by 20%. In subsequent years, it is expected that with incremental increases in production, higher volumes will have to be transported.

The increases in oil prices whets the Russian appetite and Moscow is searching for ways to export more oil The meeting between Russian producers and the representatives of Government agencies is regarded as an important step in creating a common policy towards finding new ofi corridors New routes were considered in that meeting but no concrete decision was arrived at While TRANSNEFT was proposing the Kiyiköy-İbrikbaba (193 kms and 60 million tonslyear9; LUKOIL proposed the Burghas-Alexandropolis (279 kms and 35 million tons/year); TRANSNEFT suggested that all options including Constanze (Romania)-NoviSad (Montenegro) be analyzed. In its meeting of May 28, 2004, the TRANSNEFT Board approved the efforts to support the Kiyiköy-­Ibrikbaba alternative. The capacity of this line would be equal to the volume currently being transported through the Turkish Straits with Russian tankers. The project for this line was proposed to TRANSNEFT by the Turkish ANADOLU Group and an MOU was signed between the two companies in December of 2003.

The second important move in this regard came along when Mihail Frad*ov, the Russian Premier made a 3-day visit to Bulgaria on October 19, 2004. In this visit, Russia contemplated to bring to a conclusion the studies concerning the alternative routes to enable Russian crudes to reach Western markets by bypassing the Turkish Straits. Premier Fradi’ov signed six different agreements with Bulgaria during this visit However, nothing conclusive was attained with respect to alternatives to the Straits. The parties were content in signing an MOU to keep this item in their agenda Accordingly, it was decided that the fate of the Burghas-Alexadropolis be taken up in a meeting planned to be held in Athens, between Russian, Bulgarian and Greek experts on November 4-5, 2004. And that is where the MOU (of Nov.5) mentioned first hereinabove was finally signed.

As is known, there are other alternatives, beyond the Bulgarian, to bypass the Turkish Straits This is evidenced by the statement from Viktor Hristenko, the Russian Minister of Industry & Energy to the effect that “Investment and throughput guarantees would be required. And, besides, this —Burghas- line is not the only alternative to bypass the Bosphorus”.

The signing of the Trans-Thrace Project, which is regarded as one with the best chances, was even included in the agenda of the visit by Pres. Putin to Turkey on September 2-3. It now appears that prior to this visit which has been rescheduled for December, the Russiana