The scenario of empowering pro-western affiliatated governments via civil disobedience movements had already been applied in former Yugoslavia. Plotted in the USA and put into practise in Belgrade, the success of a civile 'coup d’etat’ has demonstrated that this kind of revolutions with model character could be exported and implemented in other countries, as well. Approved and supported by some spheres beyond the US-Government, such as Soros, another successful revolution took place in Georgia only one year ago and brought to power the pro-western Michail Saakasvili. Now, the same scenario is to be played in Ukraine, yet the country showing a diverse inner dynamics.

The revolution in Belgrade was mainly organized and operated by a youth group called ‘Otpor’, which was again sponsored by Soros. In Tblisi, a students-dominated organisation called ‘Kmara’, also supported by ‘Otpor’ played an active role. In Ukraine, although the disobedience movement is being led by the oppositional leader Yushchenko, the movement is carried by ‘Pora’, the Ukrainian version of the organisation mentioned in the prior examples. The presence and dominance of mainly young Ukrainians hailing Yushchenko shows the significance of the organisation in the movement. The are quite some similarities between the developments and leaders starring in the revolutions of Ukraine ans Georgia. Both Saakasvili of Georgia and Yushchenko of Ukraine are furious pro-western politicians, again both married to foreigners. Saakasvili’s wife is Dutch; Yushchenko’s wife is an American woman.

The above mentioned inner dynamics concerning Ukraine, differing the country from Yugoslavia and Georgia, makes the situation more critical. Both Yushchenko, who started the civile disobedience movement and Yanukovich, who claims his legitime leadership can count with massive public support. The elections divided Ukraine into two pieces. While the Catholics living mostly in the western part and for some share in the central districts of Ukraine support Yushchenko, the Orthodox (Provoslav) east Ukraine support Yanukovich. Also supporting a closer relation with Russia, especially with the Russian business world, Yanukovich guarantees the back-up by the Russian population of Ukraine.

Just like Yanukovich, Yushchenko too, can count with similar public support. Having been silent and reserved first, Yanukovich realised the success of the raging on the streets, like the latest events show and decided to import some crowds from the eastern parts of the country into the streets of the capitol Kiev. This makes a violent confrontation of the supporters of both leaders inevitable.

After the EU and US allegations of cheating during the elections, Yanukovich supporters are on the streets, where the destiny of the elections are expected to be fought. The power of influencing the crowds are no more in the hands of the USA or Russia; but in the hands of the leader, who will dominate the struggle on the streets. At this stage, Yushchenko seems to be the leader to obtain both international sympathy and the control on the streets.

In Ukraine, there is a struggle between the - EU and USA led - West and Russia, reminiscing the good old days of Russian influence. The USA is aware of the potencial danger Russia would become if the country is not blocked in Ukraine. Being the legitimate successor of the fallen Russian Empire and thus bearing the potencial of a super-power, Russia is feared by the USA, to take mid-term actions in gaining influence in the former spheres of influence. That is why Ukraine symbolizes a final 'battle-field' between the USA and Russia.

Following several local leaders, some police forces expressed that they can cope with  Yushchenko’s presidence, so that the attitude of the armed forces now gain importance. The army keeps silent until the present. Ukraine’s Defence Minister and political figure Olexandre Kouzmouk asked the armed forces to keep the serenity, and stick to their constitutional obligations. Additionally, the Minister declared the disputed presidential elections as ‘fully legal’. On the other hand, there are some news about Russian special forces wearing Ukrainian uniforms, gathering at the Russian-Ukrainian border.

The good scenario is a withdrawal of Yanukovich, - as it occured in Georgia -  and a run for

re-elections. This would make the overwhelming victory of Yushchenko inevitable.

Tha bad scenario is an insistance of Yanukovich on staying in power, refusing the withdrawal and gathering even more supporters in the capitol Kiev. Unfortunately, the latter happens to occur, as more and more Yanukovich supporters keep gathering in front of the prime ministry in Kiev and the building is being is being heavily guarded. This scenario we do not even want to imagine leads to a civil war in case it becomes reality and ends with the disintegration of Ukraine. If the orange color signalizing the demanding opposition forces in Ukraine turn red in all senses, the situation would become highly undesirable for world peace and for Turkey’s sake in these hard times. The break-out of a civil war would definately result in a disjunction of the country, which would certainly lead to the independence declaration of the autonomous Krim Republic, where mostly Russian originated population is inhabitant. This again may  cause a confrontation between the Russian and Turkish originated population of the Krim Peninsula. In this case, Turkey may well feel obliged to interfere in the events.